Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Indian escorts & zombie tankers
A trickle of ships is now moving through Hormuz. Some vessels are changing their names to decommissioned ships ("zombie ships") to evade identification. And others are transiting under Indian naval escort after paying Iran a $2m toll. A return to normal traffic by the end of April is a 37% chance today.
Invasion off?
Following Trump's extension of his 2-day Hormuz ultimatum, invasion odds have cooled somewhat, but this remains the base case.
A 3.5 team race
Coming out of its opening weekend, traders still think the 2026 NCAA tournament belongs to the big favorites, with Arizona, Michigan and Duke at 61% combined to win, a figure that becomes 73% if you also include Houston.
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Who will be voted off Survivor: Season 50 this week? (March 25)
Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election Winner
#1 song on Spotify this week? (March 27)
Number of US flights delayed on March 24?
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ÂșC)
ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
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