Six stories ranked by how they move your money ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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Today’s Thesis: Kevin Warsh takes the oath as the 17th Fed Chair today with bond yields at their highest since 2007 and zero rate cuts expected this year, the Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time ever but the rally is running on fewer and fewer stocks, and Bitcoin lost 25% in a week as the yield surge triggered $360 million in liquidations. Meanwhile tech has quietly cut 100,000 jobs this year while the factory floor just had its best month since 2022, and the sector nobody is talking about, energy, is up 21.5% while AI stocks are negative for the year. The money is moving. Most investors haven’t moved with it. |
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| YOUR RATE |
30yr yield 5.12% · Warsh sworn in today |
Your New Fed Chair Takes the Oath Today. Your Mortgage Rate Is Already Reacting. Kevin Warsh is sworn in today as the 17th Fed Chair. The 30-year Treasury hit 5.12% this week, its highest since 2007. Freddie Mac's national average on a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.51%. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75% and the market has priced in zero cuts through December. Warsh called the post-pandemic inflation surge “the biggest policy error in 40 or 50 years” and says AI will eventually bring prices down. The Fed policymakers around him are not there yet.
Read the full story. The other side: If Warsh is right about AI deflation, rates come down in 2027 and the current 6.5% mortgage looks like the high for the cycle. That is the bet you make if you buy a home or refinance this year. |
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| 2 |
| YOUR PORTFOLIO |
Dow 50,009 · Energy +21.5% · Tech -3% |
The Dow Just Hit 50,000 for the First Time Ever. Here’s Why That Might Be a Warning. The Dow Jones closed at 50,009 on May 21, a milestone no index has hit before. The S&P and Nasdaq also set record highs this week, then pulled back Friday (S&P -1.14%, Nasdaq -1.62%) on profit-taking. The real story is in the sectors. Energy is up 21.5% year-to-date. Materials up 17.6%. Consumer staples up 15%. Technology is down 3%. The rally is real, but it is running on oil and steel, not software.
Read the full story. The other side: The earnings driving the rally are real, not sentiment-driven. A narrowing rally is not automatically a warning sign. It can persist for quarters. But when bond yields are at 4.59% on the 10-year, stocks face more competition for investor capital than they did a year ago. |
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| YOUR MARKET |
David Prince · Inner Circle · T3 Live |
Trump Just Signed an Executive Order That Could Ignite a Major Frenzy Into a Basket of Stocks David Prince, a hedge fund manager who trades a seven-figure personal book every day, called this catalyst in his 2026 strategy guide before the year started. He has been dead-on so far: Mag 7 rotation, tech stocks dropping, Tesla entry below $400, drone stocks soaring. One opportunity remains on his roadmap. Trump just lit the fuse. The guide is free.
Get the free guide here. The other side: Macro catalysts are real, but stock reactions are never guaranteed. Prince’s Q2 drone stock picks are in the same guide — he named the names that ran 14 to 20 percent in January before they moved. |
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| YOUR MONEY |
BTC $77,600 · $360M liquidated |
Bitcoin Just Crashed Below $80,000. Here’s Why Bond Yields Did It. Bitcoin was at $104,000 on May 15. It is at $77,600 now. The trigger was the 30-year Treasury breaking above 5%, which forced $360 million in leveraged long liquidations. When risk-off hits, crypto gets sold before most other assets. The fundamental story, however, just got better. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act, the first serious U.S. crypto market structure legislation in years. Regulatory clarity is the biggest structural positive the sector has seen in a decade.
Read the full story. The other side: After large forced-selling events, the next move often comes from buyers rather than sellers. The $80K support level has broken, which opens $75K as the next technical test. The regulatory news is long-term bullish. The price action is short-term bearish. |
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| 5 |
| YOUR JOB |
100K tech cuts YTD · manufacturing 4-yr high |
Tech Has Cut 100,000 Jobs in 2026. The Factory Floor Just Had Its Best Month in 4 Years. 100,000 tech workers have been laid off year-to-date, approaching the full-year 2025 total of 124,000. The stated reason is consistent: AI usage up 600% in three months (Cloudflare) while headcount drops. Meanwhile U.S. manufacturing hit a 4-year high in May driven by inventory building ahead of supply disruptions. The overall economy added 115,000 jobs in April and unemployment held at 4.3%. Two economies, one country.
Read the full story. The other side: Companies cutting workers to fund AI are not in trouble. They are expanding margins. IBM is up on government AI funding. Cerebras IPOs next week. The workers being cut are not evidence of failure. They are evidence of transformation. |
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| YOUR ENERGY |
Brent $104 · Energy sector +21.5% YTD |
Energy Is Up 21% This Year While Tech Is Down 3%. Here’s Why Nobody Is Talking About It. Energy stocks are the best-performing S&P 500 sector in 2026 at +21.5%, compared to tech at -3%. Brent crude is back above $104 after Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire counter-proposal. Energy Secretary Chris Wright floated pausing the 18.4-cent federal gas tax this week, a signal that $4.40+ pump prices are creating political pressure. The sector that beats energy this year is materials at +17.6%. The story of 2026 is being written in oil wells and copper mines, not data centers.
Read the full story. The other side: Two things end the trade: a ceasefire deal that brings Iranian supply back to market, or a demand-crushing recession. Neither looks imminent. Until one of those happens, energy earnings stay elevated. |
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Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250. That is 11.5% upside from current levels. Strategist price targets are directional signals, not trading calls. |
Cerebras, an Nvidia chip competitor, plans its IPO next week at $26 to $27 billion. First major AI chip IPO of the year. Watch how it opens. |
Consumer sentiment in May was unchanged from April and comparable to the trough hit in June 2022. High prices are still the top concern. |
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