On March 8th, Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Two weeks later, it hit $126. Goldman Sachs issued an emergency forecast revision. The EIA raised its oil price outlook by $20 per barrel overnight. S&P Global published a stress scenario projecting $130 for the full year. What happened? The Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. 21 million barrels of oil flow through it every single day. That's roughly 20% of the world's entire seaborne oil supply. Commercial shipping through the Strait has been severely disrupted since early March. Major global shipping insurers suspended coverage. Tankers have been diverted. Qatar's LNG exports, nearly 20% of global supply, face the same chokepoint. Everyone keeps pointing to the bypass pipelines. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline. Surely those can handle the gap. They can't. The bypass pipelines max out at 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day. The Strait handles 21 million. That leaves 15 million barrels per day that has nowhere to go. For context... the 1973 Arab oil embargo that triggered gas lines and a recession removed about 5 million barrels per day from the market. This disruption is potentially three times larger. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve? About 400 million barrels. At a shortage of 15 million per day, that's a 26-day bandage on an arterial wound. We put together a report covering exactly what happened, why the alternatives can't cover the shortfall, where prices go from here, and the specific sectors positioned to profit. U.S. shale producers with breakeven costs of $45 to $55 per barrel. LNG exporters facing desperate customers willing to pay premium prices. Oil field services companies. Domestic energy infrastructure. Read the full 2026 Oil Shock report here. In 1973, the investors who understood what was happening early made fortunes. The ones who waited for the all-clear missed the move. The all-clear hasn't come yet. Click here for the full breakdown. |
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