Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're monitoring today:
Hantavirus
Odds of a Hantavirus pandemic this year are ticking higher following reports of transmission outside the MV Hondius cruise ship.
What recession?
Traders continue to revise down their odds for a U.S. recession this year following strong April payroll data.
I'm not leaving
As more details come out about his alleged relationship with reporter Dianna Russini, traders think Pats coach Mike Vrabel isn't going anywhere.
Peace
One of Polymarket's sharpest geopolitical traders, gopfan2, is positioned for a peace deal with the Iranian regime remaining in place.
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May?
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?
April Unemployment Rate
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Next French Presidential Election
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Brazil Presidential Election
Lakers vs. Thunder
Counter-Strike: m1x vs Dripmen (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
MLB World Series Champion 2026
2026 NBA Champion
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