NKE at $41. 49% below its 52-week high. Tonight's the test. Here's the only number that moves the stock. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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Nike (NKE) heads into tonight's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at approximately $41, near an 11-year low and 49% below its 52-week high of $80.17. CEO Elliott Hill has spent 17 months unwinding a collapsed wholesale channel, clearing bloated inventory, and trying to rebuild the pricing discipline the prior management team abandoned. Tonight is the first real test of whether the numbers are turning. Analysts expect Q4 revenue of $10.85 billion, down 2-3% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.12. The bar is intentionally low after three consecutive quarters of downward estimate revisions. Greater China is projected down roughly 20%. Gross margin is expected around 39.9%. If that number comes in above 40%, it signals the inventory cleanup is further along than expected. Below 39%, and the discounting is still doing damage. The headline EPS is almost irrelevant. Nobody is valuing Nike on last quarter. The number that moves the stock is FY2027 guidance. Analysts are modeling a 24.2% EPS recovery for next fiscal year. If Hill affirms that trajectory tonight, the analyst consensus target of $58-60 implies 40-46% upside from today's price. If he doesn't, $41 is not the floor. Read the full analysis ›
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