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Today’s Thesis: SpaceX went public today as SPCX on Nasdaq in the largest IPO in history — $75 billion raised, $1.75 trillion valuation, and BlackRock ordered $5 billion before the market opened. At the same time, Trump says an Iran peace deal is days away, and global markets are already pricing it in: S&P up 1.8%, Dow up 1.9%, oil down 2.2% to $88.37. Oracle fell 11% despite strong earnings after announcing a $40 billion AI capital raise plan on top of $99.6 billion in existing debt. May’s Producer Price Index came in at 6.5% annually — the highest since November 2022 — and the ECB raised rates for the first time since September 2023. The peace trade and the inflation trade are both live today. That’s unusual. It won’t last. |
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| YOUR PORTFOLIO |
S&P +1.8% · Dow +802 · Oil -2.2% |
Trump Says an Iran Peace Deal Is Days Away. Markets Are Already Trading Like It’s Done. The S&P surged 1.8%, the Dow gained 802 points, and South Korea’s Kospi jumped 4.5% overnight after Trump announced a peace deal with Iran “could be signed in Europe within days.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on June 12 it has not yet reached a “final conclusion.” Oil fell 2.2% to $88.37 on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes. Markets are pricing the probability. The deal isn’t signed.
Read the full story. The other side: A ceasefire brokered by Pakistan in April has already seen violations by both sides. “Days away” from one negotiating party is not a signed agreement. If talks collapse, the geopolitical risk premium returns to oil fast. |
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| YOUR PORTFOLIO |
SPCX · $135/share · $1.75T valuation |
SpaceX Just Became the Biggest IPO in History. Here’s What SPCX Investors Need to Know. SpaceX priced at $135 per share, raised $75 billion, and started trading as SPCX on Nasdaq today — the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record. Demand topped $250 billion (3x oversubscribed). BlackRock ordered $5 billion before a single retail share changed hands. The company includes SpaceX rockets, Starlink, xAI, and X (Twitter). Nasdaq changed its rules to allow index inclusion in 15 trading days instead of the usual three months.
Read the full story. The other side: The 15-day Nasdaq 100 inclusion timeline creates mechanical forced buying from hundreds of billions in passive index funds. That bid arrives on a schedule. But at $1.75 trillion, this is not a value stock — it’s priced for Musk to win in rockets, satellites, AI, and social media simultaneously. |
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sponsored
| YOUR GOLD |
Priority Gold · Trump Gold Reset |
The Fed Is Praying Trump Doesn’t Sign This. He Might Anyway. Washington has been valuing America’s gold reserves at $42.22 an ounce — 1973 prices — while gold trades above $3,100 today. There is growing talk inside Washington circles that Trump is preparing an executive order correcting that valuation. One executive order would trigger the largest wealth transfer in modern American history. $7,000 gold? $10,000? The last time a president reset America’s relationship with gold, one asset gained 2,300% in under a decade.
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| YOUR PORTFOLIO |
ORCL -11% · $99.6B debt · $40B raise |
Oracle Beat Earnings and Still Fell 11%. This Is What the Market Is Telling You About AI Spending. Oracle reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results: cloud revenue up 34%, cloud infrastructure up 68%, and $523 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations from Meta and Nvidia. Then the stock fell 11%, wiping $80-100 billion from its market cap. The reason: plans to raise $40 billion for AI spending in FY2027 on top of $99.6 billion in existing long-term debt and FY2026 free cash flow already at negative $23.7 billion.
Read the full story. The other side: $523 billion in contracted future revenue from Meta and Nvidia isn’t optimism — it’s signed business. Companies that beat estimates and fall 11% on capital structure concerns sometimes create entry points. The question is whether you’re comfortable with $140B in combined debt at current rates. |
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| YOUR RATE |
PPI 6.5% annually · ECB hikes 25bp |
The PPI Just Hit 6.5%. The ECB Just Raised Rates. Inflation Didn’t Get the Memo About Fading. May’s Producer Price Index came in at 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% annually — the highest annual rate since November 2022. The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points today, its first hike since September 2023, citing renewed energy-driven inflation pressure. The Fed funds rate is at 3.50-3.75% with zero cuts priced through December. The PPI measures what businesses pay. What businesses pay today is what consumers pay in 30-90 days.
Read the full story. The other side: If the Iran deal closes and oil drops toward $80, the inflation picture shifts quickly. Energy is the single biggest input driving the current PPI reading. A peace deal is the most powerful disinflationary catalyst available right now. |
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| YOUR MONEY |
Brent $88.37 · Gold safe-haven bid eases |
Oil Just Fell 2% and Gold Is Dropping. Here’s Why the Iran Peace Trade Doesn’t Tell the Full Story. Brent crude dropped to $88.37, WTI to $85.92, as Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes ease the geopolitical supply premium. Gold eased on reduced safe-haven demand. The energy sector is still up 21.5% year-to-date — the peace trade is unwinding the war premium, not erasing the trend. Meanwhile, the U.S. government still carries its gold reserves at $42.22 per ounce. Market price is above $3,300. That gap doesn’t disappear when peace talks advance.
Read the full story. The other side: Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years. That buying is driven by long-term reserve diversification, not short-term geopolitics. A peace deal changes the risk premium on gold. It doesn’t change the structural thesis. |
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sponsored
| YOUR GOLD |
Jim Rickards · Paradigm Press · 100% Free |
Rickards: “Trump’s Gold Mine” Could Deliver 10X Gains in Just a Few Months Jim Rickards — the world’s #1 gold expert and a man with close ties to Trump’s inner circle — says the president is about to unleash a major new gold initiative. One that opens up the largest gold deposit in the entire world, right here on U.S. soil, valued at over $1 trillion. Today, Jim has revealed his favorite way to play this gold boom, and it’s 100% free.
Click here to get Jim’s FREE gold pick NOW. The other side: Gold is down today on Iran peace optimism. That’s a geopolitical trade, not a structural signal. Rickards’ thesis is about what happens when U.S. gold reserves — still on the books at $42 per ounce — get formally revalued. That’s a policy decision, not a sentiment call. |
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Adobe reported record Q2 2026 results, with revenue and earnings beating estimates across every major category. The stock was up modestly. Adobe is benefiting from AI integration in its creative suite and enterprise subscriptions, which have proven stickier than expected. |
Lam Research gained 10.7% and KLA jumped 11% today as semiconductor equipment names rebounded sharply. Chip sector volatility has been extreme in both directions this year. Today’s gain erases a portion of recent losses but does not reset the trend. |
The SEC is considering scrapping a 2005 rule requiring trading platforms to execute orders at the best available price. If removed, the change could benefit market makers and alternative trading systems at the expense of retail execution quality. Worth watching. |
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