Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Midterm math
The Supreme Court yesterday struck down parts of the Voting Rights Act, clearing the way for a number of Southern states to re-draw their congressional maps. Did it move the House forecast?
Quick Links
Farewell, Chair Powell
Powell pledged to keep a "low profile" at his final Fed meeting as Chair yesterday. But sticky inflation and spiking oil prices have put aggressive rate cuts under his successor farther out of reach.
Major upset alert
The Lightning were supposed to be favorites in the East. But after losing Wednesday, their first-round series odds are moving the wrong way in a hurry.
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
Will Comey insult Trump by Friday?
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by...?
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Fed Decision in June?
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Celtics vs. 76ers
If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here.
