The second-largest US IPO in history opened this morning. Here’s what it means for your portfolio. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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Today’s Brief: SK Hynix just completed the second-largest US IPO in history, listing on Nasdaq as SKHY at $149 per share after 7x oversubscription. The AI memory chip trade is officially mainstream. Delta Air Lines reports Q2 earnings this morning with EPS expected to fall 29% despite rising revenue. The Fed is now facing a 25% probability of hiking on July 29 as CPI remains stuck at 4.2%. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo all report Tuesday. The real earnings season starts then. And the S&P 500’s “violent rotation” is shifting capital from crowded tech names to financials and AI infrastructure. Here’s what all of it means for your portfolio. |
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| YOUR TECHNOLOGY |
SKHY IPO · $26.5B |
SK Hynix Just Listed on Nasdaq Today. Here’s Why This Chip IPO Is Different From All the Others. SK Hynix's $26.5 billion IPO makes it the second-largest US listing in history, second only to SpaceX. But this isn’t just a big number. SK Hynix controls more than half the global supply of high-bandwidth memory, the chips inside every Nvidia AI GPU. When demand for AI infrastructure doubles, so does demand for what SK Hynix makes.
Read the full story. SKHY opens at $149 per ADS today, priced after 7x oversubscription. Watch HBM revenue per unit in quarterly reports as the key metric. Samsung and Micron are both investing to close the gap. That’s the risk that matters. |
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| YOUR TRAVEL |
DAL Q2 · EPS est. -29% |
Delta Reports Q2 Earnings Today. EPS Could Fall 29% Even as Revenue Grows. Here’s the Real Story. Delta Air Lines (DAL) reports this morning before the market opens. Revenue is expected to grow 6-13% year-over-year. Earnings per share are expected to fall by roughly 29%, from $2.10 to about $1.47. Higher labor costs from new union contracts and elevated fuel prices are eating the margin. The call starts at 10 AM ET.
Read the full story. The headline EPS is not the number to watch. Watch premium cabin revenue growth. Delta's first-class, business, and premium economy seats generate 2-3x the revenue of coach, and they tend to hold up when corporate travel stays strong. If premium is growing, the margin compression is temporary. |
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| YOUR MONEY |
Hike odds 25% · CPI 4.2% |
The Fed Won’t Cut Rates. There’s Now a 25% Chance It Hikes Instead. Here’s What You Should Do. Futures markets are pricing a 25.1% probability of a rate hike at the July 29 FOMC meeting. The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75% and hasn’t moved all year. CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year in May, more than double the 2% target. The FOMC minutes from June explicitly mentioned some members see a case for hiking rates.
Read the full story. The June CPI print arrives July 15. That report determines what happens on July 29. If it surprises to the downside, hike odds drop and the market rallies. If inflation is still 4%+, a hike becomes a live scenario. Set a reminder for 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday. |
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| YOUR MARKET |
JPM · GS · WFC July 14 |
JPMorgan, Goldman, and Wells Fargo Report Tuesday. Here’s the Number That Will Move Every Stock in Your Portfolio. All three report before the bell on July 14. JPMorgan is expected to earn $5.67 per share on $50.5 billion in revenue, up 14.3% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs is expected to post EPS up 28-32%, driven by a 32% jump in investment banking fees. Wells Fargo targets $1.72-1.74 EPS on $21.8 billion revenue. Banks are the economy’s vital-signs monitor. What they say matters beyond their own stocks.
Read the full story. Watch JPMorgan’s Q3 net interest income guidance, not the Q2 headline. If JPM raises NII guidance for H2, rate-sensitive stocks across the board respond positively. If they guide down, expect selling in financials. Set your alarm for 6 AM ET Tuesday to read the release before premarket runs. |
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| YOUR PORTFOLIO |
SPX 9.6% YTD · July rotation |
The S&P 500 Hit 9.6% This Year. Now the July Selloff Is Targeting Last Year’s Winners. Here’s What’s Next. The S&P 500 is up 9.6% year-to-date (10.2% total return). But Morningstar calls July a “violent rotation. First-half tech leaders are now the ones getting sold as investors lock in profits. Capital is moving fast from crowded winners to cheaper areas. This is how healthy bull markets reset before the next leg.
Read the full story. Watch RSP (equal-weight S&P 500) versus SPY (cap-weighted) over the next two weeks. If RSP outperforms, the rotation is broadening the market. That's healthy. If SPY outperforms, concentration is returning. Broader markets are healthier, narrowing markets carry more risk. |
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The KOSPI hit 7,475 as SK Hynix surged ahead of its Nasdaq debut. South Korea's chipmakers are riding the same AI memory wave that drove today's IPO to 7x oversubscription. The global semiconductor rally is not a US-only story. |
ETF inflows crossed $1 trillion through mid-2026. That's the highest half-year inflow ever recorded. US equity ETFs drove the bulk of it. That level of passive buying provides a persistent bid under the market even during rotations. |
The US held off on new aircraft import tariffs after a Commerce Department review. The administration opted for negotiations instead. Airlines breathing easier on fleet expansion costs. |
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